File:Epidemiological toy model.gif

Summary

Description
English: Toy epidemiological model: At each time step every susceptible one (black) close enough to an ill one (red) has a chance to get infected. The ill ones can either die, or heal and become immune (green).
Date
Source https://twitter.com/j_bertolotti/status/1427344920948391940
Author Jacopo Bertolotti
Permission
(Reusing this file)
https://twitter.com/j_bertolotti/status/1030470604418428929

Mathematica 12.0 code

nhealthy = 5*10^3; nill = 10; nimmune = 0; max = nhealthy;
illradius = 0.1; step = 0.1;
healthy0 = RandomReal[{-10, 10}, {nhealthy, 2}]; ill0 = RandomReal[{-10, 10}, {nill, 2}]; immune0 = {};
healthy = healthy0; ill = ill0; immune = immune0;
probilldie = 0.01; probinfect = 0.25; probheal = 0.005;
evo = Reap[
    (*Who gets ill*)
    Do[
     For[j = 1, j <= nill, j++,
      infections = Position[Norm[# - ill[[j]]] & /@ healthy, x_ /; (x < illradius)]; (*Potential infections*)
      random = RandomReal[{0, 1}, Dimensions[infections][[1]] ];
      infections = Position[random, x_ /; (x < probinfect)];(*actual infections*)
      ill = Join[ill, Extract[healthy, infections]];
      healthy = Delete[healthy, infections]; (*moving the infected from the healthy to the ill*)
      ];
     nhealthy = Dimensions[healthy][[1]]; 
     nill = Dimensions[ill][[1]]; nimmune = Dimensions[immune][[1]];
     
     (*Who heals and get immune*)
     random = RandomReal[{0, 1}, Dimensions[ill][[1]] ];
     healings = Position[random, x_ /; (x < probheal)];
     immune = Join[immune, Extract[ill, healings] ];
     ill = Delete[ill, healings];
     nhealthy = Dimensions[healthy][[1]]; 
     nill = Dimensions[ill][[1]]; nimmune = Dimensions[immune][[1]];
     
     (*Who dies*)
     random = RandomReal[{0, 1}, Dimensions[ill][[1]] ];
     deaths = Position[random, x_ /; (x < probilldie)];
     ill = Delete[ill, deaths];
     nhealthy = Dimensions[healthy][[1]]; 
     nill = Dimensions[ill][[1]]; nimmune = Dimensions[immune][[1]];
     
     (*Movement*)
     healthy = Clip[healthy + RandomVariate[NormalDistribution[0, step], {nhealthy, 2}], {-10, 10}];
     ill = Clip[ill + RandomVariate[NormalDistribution[0, step], {nill, 2}], {-10, 10}];
     immune = Clip[immune + RandomVariate[NormalDistribution[0, step], {nimmune, 2}], {-10, 10}];
     
     Sow[{healthy, ill, immune}];
     If[nill < 1, Break[]];
     , {500}]
    ][[2, 1]];
frames = Table[
   Grid[{{
      Graphics[{PointSize[0.01], Point[evo[[j, 1]]], Red, Thick, Circle[#, illradius] & /@ evo[[j, 2]] , Green, Point[evo[[j, 3]]]}, PlotRange -> {{-10, 10}, {-10, 10}}, ImageSize -> Medium]
      ,
      ListPlot[{(Dimensions /@ evo[[All, 1]])[[1 ;; j, 1]], (Dimensions /@ evo[[All, 2]])[[1 ;; j, 1]], (Dimensions /@ evo[[All, 3]])[[1 ;; j, 1]], (Dimensions /@ evo[[All, 1]])[[1 ;; j, 1]] + (Dimensions /@ evo[[All, 2]])[[1 ;; j, 1]] + (Dimensions /@ evo[[All, 3]])[[1 ;; j, 1]]}, PlotRange -> {{0, Dimensions[evo][[1]]}, {0, max*1.1}}, PlotStyle -> {Black, Red, Green, Blue}, Axes -> False, Frame -> True, FrameTicks -> None, FrameLabel -> {"Time", "#"}, LabelStyle -> {Black, Bold}, Joined -> True, PlotLegends -> LineLegend[{Black, Red, Green, Blue}, {"Susceptible", "Ill", "Immune", "Total population"}], ImageSize -> Medium ]
      }}]
   , {j, 1, Dimensions[evo][[1]], 2}];
ListAnimate[frames]

Licensing

I, the copyright holder of this work, hereby publish it under the following license:
Creative Commons CC-Zero This file is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedication.
The person who associated a work with this deed has dedicated the work to the public domain by waiving all of their rights to the work worldwide under copyright law, including all related and neighboring rights, to the extent allowed by law. You can copy, modify, distribute and perform the work, even for commercial purposes, all without asking permission.

Category:CC-Zero#Epidemiological%20toy%20model.gifCategory:Self-published work
Category:Animated GIF files Category:Mathematical modeling of epidemics Category:Images with Mathematica source code
Category:Animated GIF files Category:CC-Zero Category:Images with Mathematica source code Category:Mathematical modeling of epidemics Category:Self-published work